All may not be quiet on the hurricane front this year, but the forecast calls for below-normal activity for the Atlantic basin.
Meteorologists from Colorado State University forecast Thursday, April 9 that six of 13 tropical storms will develop into hurricanes this year during the Atlantic hurricane season that runs from June 1 to November 30. Two of those storms will develop into major hurricanes.
Those estimates are down slightly from the average of 7.2 of 14.4 tropical storms developing into hurricanes over the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, or Gulf of Mexico from 1991 through 2020.
The current weak La Niña conditions are likely to transition to El Niño in the next few months, the Colorado State forecasters wrote, with the potential for a moderate to strong El Niño for the peak of the hurricane season. That will result in a “below-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean,” the report said.
However, the report reminded coastal residents that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season.
The Colorado State meteorologists said there is a 32% chance for at least one major hurricane (Category 3, 4 or 5) to strike the entire continental U.S. coastline this year. That’s down from the average of 43% from 1880-2020).
There is a 15% probability that a major hurricane will hit the East Coast this year, which is down from the 21% average from 1880-2020.
There is a 20% probability that a major hurricane will hit the Gulf Coast this year, which is down from the 27% average from 1880-2020.
However, there remains considerable uncertainty as to how strong this likely El Niño will be by the peak of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, the report said. Sea surface temperatures in the western tropical Atlantic are warmer than normal, while they are slightly cooler than normal in the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
The report also noted that the early April forecast has modest long-term skill when evaluated in hindsight.
Bladen County
Bladen County has experienced catastrophic flooding and wind damage from storms in the last 10 years.
Two years ago Tropical Storm Debby caused rapid flooding in downtown Bladenboro.
Hurricane Florence brought nearly three feet of rain to much of Bladen County in 2018, resulting in catastrophic flooding, downed trees and power lines and closing more than 100 roads.
Two years prior, Hurricane Matthew produced over 18 inches of rain in Bladen County, flooding more than 250 homes and nearly 100 roads.
Both Florence and Matthew severely damaged the White Oak Dike system near Kelly that resulted in severe flooding and destruction of homes in the area. Restoration of the system began in the summer of 2025 and is expected to take five years.
Preparing for a storm
The N.C. Department of Insurance offers the following tips for preparing for a storm:
• Collect and review important documents
• Put together an emergency toolkit
• Put together an emergency “go” bag
• Plan your escape
• Review insurance policies
• Complete a home inventory
• Protect property
More information is available at ncdoi.gov/consumers/disaster and readync.gov.
2026 hurricane names
Here are the names for hurricanes this year as set by the National Hurricane Center:
Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine, Kyle, Leah, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky and Wilfred.
It’s the same list as used in 2020 with the exception of Leah replacing Laura. The name was retired by the World Meteorological Organization following the Category 4 storm that produced a catastrophic, 17-foot storm surge in Louisiana and caused over $19 billion in damages in 2020.