N.C. State hurricane forecast: seven to nine hurricanes, up to three major ones

RALEIGH — The latest hurricane forecast is in from N.C. State University researchers, and it is consistent with others already published.

The 2021 season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, is expected to have 15 to 18 named storms, the report says. This is above the long-term average (11) studied from 1951 to 2020. Seven to nine may be strong enough to become hurricanes, and two to three major hurricanes.

Dr. Lian Xie, professor of marine, earth and atmospheric sciences at N.C. State, uses methodology evaluating more than 100 years of historical data. He said the Gulf of Mexico is forecast to have three to five named storms forming in the region, with two to four of them becoming hurricanes and one a major hurricane.

Graduate research assistant Xia Sun, graduate student Shahil Shah, and Xipeng Shen, professor of computer science, also contributed to the research with Xie.

The federal government’s predictions for the Atlantic Basin — which includes the Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea — through its National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, otherwise known as NOAA, is expected next month. Forecasts were released earlier from Colorado State University, a pioneer in this type of activity, as well as AccuWeather Inc. and WeatherBell Analytics. Colorado State and AccuWeather are similar; WeatherBell had an outlier prediction.

Those forecasts include:

• Colorado State: 17 named storms, eight becoming hurricanes.

• AccuWeather: 16 to 20 named storms, seven to 10 hurricanes, three to five major hurricanes.

• WeatherBell: 16 to 22 tropical storms, nine to 13 hurricanes, three to six Category 3 hurricanes. It also predicts three to six to make landfall.

The 2020 season was a record setter with 30 named storms. The naming alphabet was exhausted, and the Greek alphabet was put into use. It started with Alpha and reached Iota.

The World Meteorological Organization this year will not revert to Greek; rather, it will go to an alternate set of names that begins with Adria.