Coronavirus: Johns Hopkins study says lockdowns have been much more detrimental to society than a benefit

Information published on a study by researchers at the renowned Johns Hopkins University indicates global lockdowns have been much more detrimental to society than a benefit during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Researchers concluded they “are ill-founded and should be rejected as a pandemic policy instrument.”

The news came on a week when Bladen County’s positive test total, bolstered by the less virulent omicron variant, ended January with 11 fatalities and 2,684 positive tests recorded.

Since the pandemic began, the county has recorded 109 deaths and 8,780 positive tests — 134 positive tests just from Tuesday and Wednesday. In a report Wednesday from the Bladen County Health Department, the county had 14 people hospitalized and what it deemed 302 active cases. There have been 8,369 recoveries since the pandemic began.

Statewide on Wednesday, there were 4,725 hospitalized; and since the pandemic began, there have been 20,904 deaths and 2,442,891 positive tests.

The original strain of COVID-19 was being detected when the first peak month in the pandemic, January of last year, had 765 positive tests. The delta variant of COVID-19 was being detected when Bladen County recorded 964 positive tests in August. Omicron variant, the least virulent of these three strains, is now being detected.

The study out early this week was authored by Jonas Herby, special advisor at Center for Political Studies in Copenhagen, Denmark; Lars Jonung, professor emeritus in economics at Lund University, Sweden; and Steve H. Hanke, a professor of Applied Economics and the founder and co-director of The Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise.

The researchers defined lockdowns as restriction on “peoples’ possibilities” that included “policies that limit internal movement, close schools and businesses, and ban international travel.” They further said, “To answer our question, we focused on studies that examine the actual impact of lockdowns on COVID-19 mortality rates based on registered cross-sectional mortality data and a counterfactual difference in-difference approach.”

The answer, in simplest terms, was “no.”

They wrote, “Lockdowns have had little to no effect on COVID-19 mortality. More specifically, stringency index studies find that lockdowns in Europe and the United States only reduced COVID-19 mortality by 0.2% on average.” Also, with regard to shelter in place orders, the study said they “were also ineffective, only reducing COVID-19 mortality by 2.9% on average,” further noting “Specific non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) studies also find no broad-based evidence of noticeable effects on COVID-19 mortality.”

On the North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services website, the Tuesday report on clusters and outbreaks included from Bladen County:

• Bladen East Health and Rehab, 12 staff members, 21 residents.

• Elizabethtown Healthcare & Rehabilitation Center, 23 staff, 40 residents.

• West Bladen Assisted Living, six staff, no residents.

• Bladen County Detention Center, no staff, six inmates.

• Bladenboro Primary, seven staff, 30 children.

• Elizabethtown Primary, four staff, 15 children.

• Dublin Primary, no staff, 10 children.

• Emereau: Bladen Charter School, five staff, 28 children.

• Clarkton School of Discovery, one staff, eight children.

• Bladenboro Middle, one staff, 42 children.

• Elizabethtown Middle, no staff, 14 children.

• West Bladen High, 10 staff, 32 children.

• East Bladen High, five staff, 21 children.

The state defines clusters as five or more at child care facilities or schools, and outbreaks as two or more cases at congregate living settings. Numbers are cumulative from varying points and do not indicate active.

Wednesday morning, on the website of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, only six of 3,220 counties in the U.S. were not listed as high community transmission. All 100 in North Carolina are high. The period measured is Jan. 25 to Monday for case rate, and Jan. 23 to Saturday for percent positivity.

The CDC says Bladen County has 61.1 percent (19,985) of the total population fully vaccinated and 77.5 percent (25,350) partially vaccinated. Of those age 12 and up, the numbers climb to 69.3 percent and 87.4 percent, respectively.

The percentages are not a match for this past summer’s population totals from the U.S. Census.

With 95 percent of the state’s hospitals reporting, DHHS says there is availability of 65 percent of the ventilators, 13 percent of the intensive care unit beds, and 18 percent of all hospital beds.

The DHHS postal ZIP code report lists 2,927 cases in Elizabethtown and White Lake since the pandemic began; 2,402 in Bladenboro; 1,183 in Clarkton; 856 in East Arcadia; 482 in White Oak; 409 in Tar Heel; 236 in Council; and 189 in Kelly.

There are 41 fatalities listed for the ZIP in Bladenboro; 36 in Elizabethtown and White Lake; nine each in East Arcadia and Clarkton; five in Tar Heel; four in Council; three in White Oak; and one in Kelly.

In adjacent counties to Bladen, Cumberland has had 518 deaths and 75,902 cases; Robeson has had 491 deaths and 37,966 cases; Columbus has had 240 deaths and 14,995 cases; Sampson has had 147 deaths and 17,244 cases; and Pender has had 109 deaths and 14,073 cases — a total of 1,505 deaths and 160,180 cases. This six-county southeastern pocket represents 7.7 percent of the state’s deaths (1,614) and 6.9 percent of the cases (168,960).

A combined 13 metropolitan counties have the state’s three largest cities and account for 36.9 percent of the deaths (7,714) and 47.3 percent of the cases (1,155,066) since the pandemic began.

In the Charlotte area, Mecklenburg County has had 1,443 deaths and 262,965 positive cases, Gaston County has had 708 deaths and 61,380 cases, Rowan County has had 535 deaths and 38,817 cases, Union County has had 425 deaths and 58,141 cases, Cabarrus County has had 427 deaths and 52,713 cases — a total of 3,538 deaths and 474,016 cases.

In and near the Triangle area, Wake County has had 967 deaths and 268,740 cases, Johnston County has had 368 deaths and 54,394 cases, Durham County has had 286 deaths and 64,922 cases, and Orange County has had 120 deaths and 23,398 cases — a total of 1,741 deaths and 411,454 cases.

In the interior of the 12-county Piedmont Triad, Guilford County has had 998 deaths and 108,642 cases, Forsyth County has had 697 deaths and 86,895 cases, Randolph County has had 370 deaths and 33,434 cases, and Davidson County has had 370 deaths and 40,625 cases — a total of 2,435 deaths and 269,596 cases.

According to the coronavirus tracker of Johns Hopkins University, available on BladenJournal.com, more than 75.4 million confirmed cases and 892,000 deaths are counted in the U.S. The second-highest case total is in India, with more than 41.6 million.

There have been more than 5.6 million deaths worldwide and 383.7 million cases.