Work has ramped up in Bladen and Robeson area fields as key summer weather dates approach.
ELIZABETHTOWN — Weather watchers casually followed “An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms“ moving into the Gulf of Mexico in recent days.
It was the first blip of anything resembling a storm as Hurricane Season launches on Thursday.
“Environmental conditions appear only marginally favorable for additional development over the next several days as the system meanders over the eastern Gulf of Mexico,” according to a statement Tuesday from the National Hurricane Center.
Forecasters gave the story only a 20% chance of forming into a hurricane over the next week.
Residents in the greater Robeson County area enjoyed a Memorial Day — the traditional start of summer — with isolated showers, something growers and backyard gardeners welcomed after a period of very hot, dry days.
The official start of summer — which begins on the summer solstice or 10:57 a.m. on June 21 here in North Carolina — is still a few weeks out; although a short drive around the region reveals the arrival of yet another significant summer date: the Fourth of July.
Most of the fields planted to corn are green with early season stalks well on the way to reaching knee high by the Fourth of July.
Local growers as well as emergency planners are keeping a close watch on weather conditions as the days of the calendar pass.
Hurricane Season
NOAA forecasters with the Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, predict near-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic this year, according to a statement Monday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, which begins on Thursday and runs through Nov. 30 comes with a “40% chance of a near-normal season, a 30% chance of an above-normal season and a 30% chance of a below-normal season,” NOAA forecasters stated.
NOAA is forecasting a range of 12-17 named storms (winds of 39 miles per hour or higher), according to Monday’s statement. Of those, five to nine could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including up to four major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher), according to the NOAA statement. The Monday report stated that NOAA’s storm forecast “has a 70% confidence in these ranges.”
“Thanks to the Commerce Department and NOAA’s critical investments this year in scientific and technological advancements in hurricane modeling, NOAA will be able to deliver even more accurate forecasts, helping ensure communities have the information they need to prepare for and respond to the destructive economic and ecological impacts of Atlantic hurricanes,” said Secretary of Commerce Gina M. Raimondo.
Climate conditions
According to Monday’s report, “the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be less active than recent years, due to competing factors — some that suppress storm development and some that fuel it — driving this year’s overall forecast for a near-normal season.”
After three hurricane seasons with La Nina present, NOAA scientists predict a high potential for El Nino to develop this summer, which can suppress Atlantic hurricane activity, according to the prepared statement.
“El Nino’s potential influence on storm development could be offset by favorable conditions local to the tropical Atlantic Basin,” the NOAA report stated.
“With a changing climate, the data and expertise NOAA provides to emergency managers and partners to support decision-making before, during and after a hurricane has never been more crucial,” said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad. “To that end, this year we are operationalizing a new hurricane forecast model and extending the tropical cyclone outlook graphic from five to seven days, which will provide emergency managers and communities with more time to prepare for storms.”
According to Monday’s report, NOAA will implement a series of upgrades and improvements this summer. The agency said the changes will expand the capacity of its operational supercomputing system by 20%.
“This increase in computing capability will enable NOAA to improve and run more complex forecast models, including significant model upgrades this hurricane season including the following:
“In late June, the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) will become operational. HAFS will run this season in tandem with the currently operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast Model System and Hurricanes in a Multi-scale Ocean-coupled Non-hydrostatic model, but eventually will become NOAA’s primary hurricane model. Retrospective analysis of tropical storms and hurricanes from the 2020-2022 seasons show that this model has a 10-15% improvement in track forecasts over existing operational models. This new model was jointly created by NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory Hurricane Modeling and Prediction Program and NOAA’s National Weather Service Environmental Modeling Center.
“The Probabilistic Storm Surge model upgrade on May 2, advances storm surge forecasting for the contiguous U.S. and new forecasts for surge, tide and waves for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Forecasters now have the ability to run the model for two storms simultaneously. This model provides forecasters with the likelihood, or probability, of various flooding scenarios including a near worst-case scenario to help communities prepare for all potential outcomes.
Days ahead
Friday may be the safest day to mow the grass before showers arrive on Saturday afternoon, according to NWS forecasters.
Saturday is expected to bring a 30% chance of showers after 2 p.m.
David Kennard is the executive editor of The Robesonian. Reach him at dkennard@robesonian.com.