ELIZABETHTOWN — Two weeks after the stunning reduction in restrictions, North Carolinians have data from the “science and data” governor begging a question.
Could we have been better off if this had been done sooner?
Gov. Roy Cooper two Fridays ago pivoted from his mandate that the state have at least two-thirds of the adult population partially vaccinated by Tuesday. That originated out of an April 28 press briefing, and the early days of May showed the needle wasn’t moving much if any. Hitting that target was becoming the longest of longshots; hence, Cooper punted early.
On May 14, he announced a virtual reopening of the state and a drop in requirements for face coverings and social distancing, with the notable exception of schools.
Two weeks later, rolling seven-day averages are 39 percent down for the number of new cases, 27 percent down for hospitalizations, and 22 percent down for the controversial statistic of test percentage positive.
In addition, there is mounting evidence of having reached what is known as herd immunity. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says active immunity is inclusive of both natural immunity and vaccine-induced immunity.
In North Carolina, nearly 53 percent of the adult population is at least partially vaccinated. Jon Sanders, a Raleigh-based researcher and senior fellow for Regulatory Studies at the John Locke Foundation, estimates 69.5 percent of the state has active immunity — a tick below experts’ estimates that 70 percent is the threshold for herd immunity.
Sanders’ calculations use CDC estimates — for example, that 1 in 4.3 infections are actually reported — and state Department of Health and Human Services statistics. He has, for months, calculated an index to represent the percentage of people “posing no threat of passing along COVID-19 to anyone” and last week that number had climbed to 99.9 percent.
The state remains under a state of emergency, as declared by Cooper. Bladen County remains in the second-highest of five alert categories as assigned by DHHS, meaning it is one of the nine-worst in the state. Yet, the number hospitalized has been less than five for months and active cases are close to sustaining the lowest levels since before Thanksgiving — half a year ago.
Bladen County’s Health Department reported active cases to be down to 41 on Friday. There are two people hospitalized.
Since the pandemic began, the county has had 42 deaths, 3,332 cases and 3,249 recoveries. In May, the county has recorded one death, 102 cases and 117 recoveries.
Vaccination series are complete for 30.8 percent of the total population of the county and 38.6 percent of the total population of the state, DHHS says. There are 10,064 people fully vaccinated in Bladen County, and 11,218 partially vaccinated. Statewide, there are 4,048,187 people fully vaccinated and 4,494,172 partially vaccinated.
In Friday’s statewide report for clusters and outbreaks, there was no change in Bladen County. Bladenboro Primary School remains on the cluster list with no changes — five cases involving children, no staff cases, and no deaths. The school year ends Friday.
DHHS defines outbreaks as two or more cases at congregate living settings, and clusters as five or more at child care facilities or schools.
The DHHS postal ZIP code report lists 1,119 cases in Elizabethtown and White Lake since the pandemic began; 825 in Bladenboro; 432 in Clarkton; 360 in East Arcadia; 181 in White Oak; 166 in Tar Heel; 89 in Council; and 66 in Kelly.
There are 20 fatalities listed for the ZIP in Elizabethtown and White Lake. There have been eight in Bladenboro; five each Clarkton and East Arcadia; four in Clarkton; two each in Council and White Oak; and one each in Tar Heel and Kelly. The Dublin ZIP code disappeared from the state report on Jan. 29.
Friday’s totals from the state included:
• 13,078 deaths.
• 1,001,154 cases.
• 694 hospitalized.
• 13,200,812 tests.
For most people, the coronavirus causes mild or moderate symptoms, such as fever and cough. But for others, especially older adults and people with existing health conditions, the highly contagious virus can cause severe symptoms and be fatal.
In Bladen County, the ages 25-49 category has had 37 percent of the cases, 50-64 has 22 percent, 18-24 has 12 percent, 17-and-under has 14 percent, 65-74 has 11 percent and 75-or-older has 5 percent. Ages for 23 of 42 deaths are suppressed; six are ages 75-and-older, six are ages 65-74, five are ages 50-64, and two are ages 25-49.
Statewide, the ages 25-49 category has had 39 percent of the cases, 50-64 has 20 percent, 18-24 has 14 percent, 17-and-under has 12 percent, 65-74 has 8 percent and 75-or-older has 6 percent. Of the fatalities, ages 75-and-older has made up 59 percent, 65-74 has 24 percent, 50-64 has 14 percent and 25-49 has 4 percent.
In adjacent counties to Bladen, there have been 886 deaths and 66,065 cases. Cumberland has 309 deaths and 29,582 cases; Robeson has 244 deaths and 16,609 cases; Columbus has 151 deaths and 6,372 cases; Sampson has 113 deaths and 7,992 cases; and Pender has 69 deaths and 5,510 cases.
Congregate living settings in North Carolina have totaled 5,613 deaths and 73,054 positive cases. Outbreaks have been identified and are active at 103 nursing homes, 61 residential care facilities, 33 correctional institutions and four other facilities. Of those, nine are in Cumberland, four in Pender, three in Robeson, and one in Sampson.
Pender has two clusters, and Bladen and Cumberland have one each.
With 97 percent of the state’s hospitals reporting, DHHS says there is availability of 73 percent of the ventilators, 21 percent of the intensive care unit beds and 24 percent of all hospital beds.
In the personal protective equipment category, medical KN95 respirators have 87 days supply. All other categories are at least three months.
A combined 13 metropolitan counties have the state’s three largest cities and account for 38.1 percent of the deaths (4,987) and 46.5 percent of the cases (465,400).
In the Charlotte area, Mecklenburg County has 969 deaths and 113,237 positive cases, Gaston County has 437 deaths and 26,883 cases, Rowan County has 306 deaths and 17,034 cases, Cabarrus County has 260 deaths and 22,117 cases, and Union County has 223 deaths and 24,659 cases — a total of 2,195 deaths and 203,930 cases.
In and near the Triangle area, Wake County has 728 deaths and 88,747 cases, Durham County has 224 deaths and 25,533 cases, Johnston County has 223 deaths and 21,965 cases, and Orange County has 101 deaths and 8,568 cases — a total of 1,276 deaths and 144,813 cases.
In the interior of the 12-county Piedmont Triad, Guilford County has 711 deaths and 48,157 cases, Forsyth County has 382 deaths and 36,483 cases, Randolph County has 230 deaths and 15,168 cases, and Davidson County has 193 deaths and 16,849 cases — a total of 1,516 deaths and 116,657 cases.
According to the coronavirus tracker of Johns Hopkins University, available on BladenJournal.com, more than 33.2 million confirmed cases and 594,000 deaths are counted in the U.S. The second-highest case total is in India, with more than 27.8 million.
There have been more than 170 million cases worldwide, with more than 3.5 million deaths.
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